IEA oil demand forecast scaled back

15 November, 2017, 01:05 | Author: Terri Saunders
  • US oil and gas 'resurgence' expected as global demand grows

Indeed, the IEA also suggests that demand for oil will remain supported by lower prices, going forward.

Oil prices held largely steady on Tuesday as the prospect of further rises in United States output offset some of the optimism that OPEC-led production cuts would tighten the balance between crude supply and demand.

"The oil market should be able to find a longer-term equilibrium, with the oil price in a range of $50-70 a barrel", the agency said. And the IEA expects non-OPEC countries to boost output by 1.4 million barrels a day next year, doubling this year's production growth.

Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US. But the oil market isn't tightening as quickly as once anticipated, the IEA said in its monthly oil-market report. This latest move comes as investors expect figures to show U.S. oil production has risen.

"I think this group of committed and responsible producers came together. and I think they will continue to do what it takes to take us to the next level", he said at an global oil conference. Venezuela depends on oil for more than 95 percent of hard currency export revenues, fuelling both social welfare programs and payment on some $60 billion of outstanding bonds.

The IEA estimates that there will be 50 million electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, from closer to 2 million now. The figure was even lower based on secondary sources rather than what the government reports, at 1.863 million bpd in October, according to Opec.

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A study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts that pure electric vehicles would achieve a global penetration of 12 per cent in 2025, 34 per cent by 2030 and 90 per cent by 2050.

It argues that fuel efficiency and rising electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to 2 billion vehicles by 2040.

After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday.

Analysts also noted that oil prices were being pressured by a global commodities selloff, led by base metals like nickel and copper, due to weaker-than-expected economic data from China.

Global demand is forecast to be 30 percent higher by 2040, but still half as much as it would be without efficiency improvements.

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